At a time when the world faces a polycrisis—the convergence of systemic risks that threaten people, ecosystems, and institutions, leading to global shocks—we must radically rethink how we assess and respond to these interconnected threats.
Shaped by the long arc of history and rooted in shared drivers and structural injustices, systemic risks bring with them compounding and cascading impacts that are increasingly difficult to predict. Yet they also offer a rare opportunity to reimagine our systems, our institutions, and ourselves. This moment therefore calls on us to audaciously imagine future responses that intentionally seek to mitigate, prepare for, adapt to, and transform away from the harms of systemic risks.
In 2024, ASRA’s Systemic Risk Response Working Group embarked on a futures exercise using the ParEvo method to do just that: to journey into the future and imagine novel responses unfolding between 2025 and 2045, while navigating the ever-evolving dynamics of this polycrisis with honest hope.
The insights shared in this short analysis are both sobering and inspiring: systemic risk responses of the future are already emerging today - from regenerative farming and eco-ethical decision-making to citizen assemblies and dynamic risk dashboards. These early seeds hold potential for transformational change, if nurtured with imagination, courage, and collaboration.
This is not just a scenario exercise. It’s an invitation to imagine and build a flourishing future amid uncertainty.
